March 28, 2009

The Distress Could – and Will – Happen in NCAA Football

The SEC is good again. USC has a team with tons of talent. Ohio State looks strong but folds in big games. Some things stay pretty consistent each and every year in college football. Want another one to add to the list? How about that big upsets will happen, every single week, in college football. That means you can’t just bet on the favorites. Sometimes you have to bet on your instincts (and be prepared to be made fun of when they backfire completely!)

Most of us have our own way to bet on college football. One good thing to remember is that we should expect upsets to happen. Here are a few situations to keep in mind in regard to upsets when you make your picks.

A team just won an important game and will be too relaxed and happy to adequately prepare for the next opponent. An unranked team from within the conference is the opponent. They won’t be mistaken for a BCS Bowl team, but they know the opponent very well. A team is playing on national television, or in a primetime game, with all of the attention on them. Especially true of teams that are not used to the stage. And more! Of course there are more upset situations to pay attention to, but those as good a place as any to start.

In the 2008 season, upsets have already begun to happen. For example, Oregon State beat USC even though everybody thought USC was going to be in the BCS Championship game. In fact, everyone thought that playing Oregon State was going to be a letdown for USC. In fact, this was true. Florida was beaten by Mississippi because Mississippi made some big plays and had some luck. That said, though, anything is possible in the SEC. What do both of the games just discussed have in common? Both involved conference opponents who were unranked.

Some unranked upsets are harder to predict though. Especially when an unranked team doesn’t play in the Bowl Subdivision! It was just last season when Appalachian State beat Michigan in the Big House. And Bowl games aren’t safe from the upset either. Anybody remember the all-time great game between Boise State and Oklahoma? There goes the theory that the big time program will always win the big game.

Now that we have some Top 25 powers which are not traditionally seen there, there could be more BCS Bowl game upsets in store for this year. Boise State, Utah and BYU are all contenders and could really surprise a national audience by coming out on top if some of the traditional SEC leaders. Connecticut and Wake Forest aren’t really known for their football programs, but these teams have more than enough talent on board that there could easily be some bowl game upsets this year.

The point is this, you always have to be prepared for the upset. Look out for those upset situations highlighted above. Never go on autopilot when you’re making your online bets. No team and no game is ever guaranteed or 100%. Dig into the matchup and find the upset before it happens to rake in some cash.

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